12th July 2009
1) Astana are kick arse

Serious power and depth in Astana. The media hype over who's the leader and who will the team work for hasn't really been seen on the road, apart from that small burst of speed from Contador who according to Lance Armstrong went against the agreed plan - but is all cool.
2) Armstrong could win
I wasn't sure before the Tour started that Lance could really turn back time and be a serious contender. I thought top ten. But this week has seen Lance Armstrong look really strong, he was in the right place at the right time - when the crosswinds combined with an attack - to gain 19 seconds. He looked like he could have followed Contador when Contador attacked.
3) Contador could win
Contador did attack well on the first day in the mountains. He's obviously fast up the hills but I think the fact he did attack probably suggests that he is a bit nervous about Lance. Or perhaps it's pride.. he didn't want the media to think he couldn't better the older man. Either way he's a fighter and won't go do without a proper face off at some point.
4) Wiggins the mountain goat
Bradley Wiggins is looking really good, he's lost 8 kilos from last year. He's proved for his disciplines he was the best in the world on the track (2 golds) and has now made the conversion to road biker. I remember last year when he attacked on a stage to be out for the whole day to just get caught near the finish (a la David Millar this year). He looked good that day, but suffered in the mountains. This year he's looking good climbing with all the very top guys. He says he's feeling more confident and is aiming for top 20. He could be a top 5 .. but there's a long way to go.
5) Mark Cavendish is fast
Probably the fastest of everyone. He's no longer in green but perhaps that will change. The problem Mark has is that everyone thinks he's the fastest so that no other team wants to do the work to put their sprinter on the front.
All in all it's been a really good start to the tour. The speculation and hype over Lance's comeback has made it interesting. Next week has a big day today (Sunday) then flat (ish) stages till Friday. So we might see more of Mark Cav next week.
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